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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.