Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
