Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
